And the balance of power in Russia, where vaguely liberal reformers have remained in charge of the economy, could be destabilised. Even so, chaos at the top would make its government even more unpredictable than it has been since Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.Ĭonfusion about who runs the show in the Kremlin would also send shivers among world governments worried about the fate of Russia’s nuclear weapons.
Russia is not a major global economic power - its GDP is smaller than Italy’s or Canada’s, and large parts of its economy have been uncoupled from the developed world since the invasion of Ukraine early last year. The worst outcome would be a period of long uncertainty with different clans vying for power in Moscow.
The short-lived mutiny, which ended with Wagner fighters turning back and their leader apparently leaving for Belarus, raises the possibility that the Putin era may end faster than most expected. Until heavily armed mercenaries from Prigozhin’s Wagner group set off for Moscow on Saturday, the biggest Russian political risk for the rest of the world was that Putin would prevail in Ukraine. The best approach would be to expect the worst, while preparing for the best. The United States, Europe and China will need to dust off their post-Putin plans. That perception may matter more than the power games now unfolding in Moscow.
LONDON, June 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Whatever happens after Vladimir Putin’s humiliation at the hand of his former protégé Yevgeny Prigozhin, the rest of the world sees the Russian president as wounded.
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